What The Data Tells Us About WXV 2023 - Part 1: Territory

Analyst, writer and coach Sam Larner explores data from WXV

Launched in 2023, WXV is a new women’s international 15s competition. Formed of three tiers, with six teams in each. The teams in each tier will be decided on a year-by-year basis.

In 2023, the competition was:

WXV 1 - England (winner), Canada, Australia, New Zealand, France and Wales

WXV 2 - Scotland (winner), Italy, South Africa, Japan, USA and Samoa

WXV 3 - Ireland (winner), Fiji, Spain, Kenya, Kazakhstan and Columbia

In a 3-part series, coach, analyst and writer Sam Larner, goes through data from the 2023 WXV to look at trends within international women’s rugby. The articles explore territory, entries into the 22 and where teams play on the pitch. The first looks at territory.

Thanks to @Oval_Insights, we have a huge amount of data for every game in WXV - over 58,000 data points. I’ve dug through them to see what we can learn and where the game is won and lost.

Part 1: Territory

There's a simple but rarely spoken about part of rugby: the average starting position of a possession. This is essentially territory. Where does a team start their attacks? The further up the pitch, the better.

The above image shows how Ireland start their possessions from within the opposition's half. Fiji, on the other hand, start inside their own 40m. There’s not an enormous difference, but across Ireland's 137 possessions that equates to a gain of 1,781m in the tournament.

It's not just about where a team begins their attack, but also where they allow their opponent to start. In these stats, again, Ireland and Fiji are polar opposites. We can also pick out Wales, who lost all three of their matches. They were midpack for their own attacking starts but they let their opponents start high up the pitch.

Italy are another side who did well, but didn’t give themselves the best starts. However, they performed much better when it came to restricting their opponent's starting position. A big part of this is a team's ability to kick well. Kick well and you can improve both measures.

Unsurprisingly, Ireland top this chart. We can debate the relative merits of kicking, but, once you've decided to kick you need to make it worth your while. Just kicking 20m doesn't flip the pitch and remove pressure.

We can see it clearly if we only look at kicks from within the 22. These should be the kicks which travel the furthest. Ireland kick 37m allowing them to turn the pitch. Fiji kick just 21m and doesn't allow them to transfer pressure.

I expect kicking to become a greater focus in the women's game. As it stands, no men's team in the World Cup carried for more than 50% of their total metres, most didn't come anywhere near. In the women’s game very few teams carry for less than 50%.

Some questions to think about from Sam and Jess:

• Women’s rugby has a larger ball in play time than men’s rugby. If kicking becomes a greater focus, what does this mean for ball in play stats?

• What impact do you think kicking has on a team's decision-making on exits?

[Original thread posted on Twitter Jan 2024, version has been edited and published Jan 2024]